Housing price and interest rate uncertainty

The monetary policy instrument, Norges Bank’s sight deposit rate, affects the target (the forecasted core inflation rate) through several channels.  The key interest rate is therefore not a particularly precise policy instrument. Some of the effects of a change in the policy rate works its way through the housing market.  The graph shows annual growth (in percent) in a NAM forecast based on the interest rate path that was published by Norges Bank in March 2017 (the blue fans indicate confidence bounds of 30, 60 and 90 prosent).   House price growth takes a plunge in this forecast.  A new interest rate path is about to be published (22. june 2017) and this post ponders the issue of possible negative effects on house prices of a lift int he interest rate level.