Model based economic analysis

Normetrics is an interface to research and consulting work based on econometric modelling, in particular to the development and use of the Norwegian Aggregate Model (NAM).

Forecasting atmospheric CO2 -December 2019

The longest time series for atmospheric CO2 is for the Pacific island of Mauna Loa. Based on this time series, the development of the CO2 level can be forecasted on a monthly basis.

The graph shows forecasted CO2 levels for the 12 months from December 2019 to November 2020, compared to the same months in the previous year:

The graph showing actuals from Dec 2018 to Nov 2019 is below the dashed line marking the lower bound of a 95 percent prediction interval. Hence, the level of atmospheric CO2 is forecsted to increase significantly over the 12 month period.

Read more about the forecast by clicking the CO2 forecast-link in the right menu. Posted 10 December 2019