Model based economic analysis

Normetrics is an interface to research and consulting work based on econometric modelling, in particular to the development and use of the Norwegian Aggregate Model (NAM).

Forecasting atmospheric CO2

The longest time series for atmospheric CO2 is for the Pacific island of Mauna Loa. Based on this time series, the development of the CO2 level can be forecasted on a monthly basis. The graph below shows a forecast for the period from September 2019 to December 2020.

Forecasts for Mauna Loa atmospheric CO2. September 2019-Desember 2020. Forecast produced 23 September 2019, based on data where CO2 in August 2019 is the last observation. pdf-version of the graph.

The forecasted numbers are in 23sept2019_forecast.xlsx .

In this forecast, CO2 (measured in units of ppm)-is projected to increase by 0,92 percent from August 2019 to December 2020, and 0,61 prosent from December 2019 to December 2020.

Forecasts of Mauna Loa CO2 have been published by among others, the UK Met.office: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/long-range/forecasts/co2-forecast. These forecasts, produced by large instituions, are high-quality and are based on extensive measurements and the use of scientific models.

The forecasts on this page only use the information in the time series itself, and that information is processed with the use of methods oroginally developed for empirical macroeconometric modelling, see Doornik og Hendry (2018. kap 14.8), Henry og Doornik (2014), Nymoen (2019, kap 11), among others. This means that the forecasts can be updated soon after the publication of a new monthly mean of atmospheric CO2 over Mauna Loa has been published.

 

22 august 2019:

Macroeconometric textbook published

Dynamic Econometerics for Empirical Macroeconometric Modelling was published by World Scientific   in July 2019. It is a textbook  for Masters and PhD students in Economics.   About the book:

  • A concise presentation on the mathematics of difference equations and how it is used in dynamic econometric modelling
  • Methods for non-stationary and co-integrated variables
  • Structured chapters on automatic methods for variable selection and forecasting with empirical macroeconometric models
  • Complete with end-of-chapter exercises and solutions

In the textbook, the duality between the equilibrium concept used in dynamic economic theory and the stationarity of economic variables is explained and used in the presentation of single equations models and system of equations such as VARs, recursive models and simultaneous equations models.

Normetrics.no is home for the webpage of the book. You can access the page by using the Book  tab in the main menu.

 

Contact information:

post@normetrics.no;

Normetrics is edited by

Ragnar Nymoen (+ 47) 97 97 02 48,    ragnar.nymoen@normetrics.no

Personvern (Norwegian)